Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the United States on June 22, 2023, is expected to strengthen the already strong bilateral relations between the two countries. The discussions between PM Modi and US President Joe Biden are expected to cover a wide range of issues, including trade, defense, and regional security.
One of the key factors that will help in bonding relations with the US is the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue or Quad. The Quad is a strategic grouping of four countries – the United States, India, Japan, and Australia – that was formed in 2007 to promote a free and open Indo-Pacific region. The Quad has been gaining momentum in recent years, with the member countries conducting joint military exercises and holding regular meetings to discuss regional security issues.
During PM Modi’s visit, the Quad is expected to feature prominently in the discussions with the US President. The Quad is seen as a crucial mechanism for maintaining peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region, which is increasingly becoming a contested space due to China’s assertiveness. The four countries share a vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific, and they are working together to promote a rules-based order that respects international law.
The impact of PM Modi’s visit to the US and the strengthening of the Quad will be felt globally. The Quad is seen as a counterbalance to China’s growing influence in the region, and it has the potential to shape the future of the Indo-Pacific. The US and India are the world’s two largest democracies, and their partnership is crucial for promoting a rules-based international order.
The visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to India in July for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit is also significant for India. The SCO is a regional security grouping that includes Russia, China, and several Central Asian countries. India and Pakistan joined the SCO in 2017.
Putin’s visit to India could bring about a change in Russia-India relations, which have been traditionally strong. The two countries have cooperated in several areas, including defense, energy, and space. However, the relationship has been strained in recent years due to Russia’s growing closeness to China. Putin’s visit could help to address some of these issues and strengthen the ties between the two countries.
However, it is also possible that China could benefit from Putin’s visit to India. China has been working to deepen its ties with Russia, and it sees the SCO as a key platform for promoting its interests in the region. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) also overlaps with Russia’s Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), and the two countries have been working to integrate their respective projects.
The recent issuance of an arrest warrant by the International Criminal Court (ICC) against Russian President Vladimir Putin for alleged war crimes in Ukraine has also raised concerns about the impact of Putin’s visit to India. The ICC has accused Putin of overseeing the abduction of Ukrainian children during the conflict in eastern Ukraine, which began in 2014.
The issuance of the arrest warrant has the potential to sour the relations between India and Russia. However, the ICC’s decision to issue an arrest warrant against Putin has put a strain on the relationship.
India has been a supporter of the ICC, and it has consistently called for accountability for war crimes and crimes against humanity. However, India has also maintained that the ICC’s jurisdiction should be limited to cases where the crimes have been committed on the territory of a state party to the ICC’s Rome Statute. Ukraine is not a state party to the Rome Statute, and India has not taken a position on the ICC’s decision to issue an arrest warrant against Putin.
The timing of Putin’s visit to India, just weeks after the ICC’s decision, could be seen as problematic. It remains to be seen how India will respond to the issue of the arrest warrant during Putin’s visit. It is possible that India may choose to raise the issue with Putin, or it may decide to avoid the issue altogether.
The impact on India-Russia relations will depend on how the two countries handle these issues. India and Russia have a history of engaging in frank and open discussions on sensitive issues, and it is possible that the two countries may be able to find a way to resolve the issue amicably.
However, it is also possible that the issue could further strain the relationship between India and Russia, especially if the two countries take different positions. Russia is likely to view the arrest warrant as a political move by the West to isolate Russia, while India may see this issue as a matter of international law and accountability.
In conclusion, PM Modi’s visit to the US and the strengthening of the Quad will help to deepen the partnership between India and the US and promote a free and open Indo-Pacific. Putin’s visit to India for the SCO summit could bring about a change in Russia-India relations, but it remains to be seen if China will be the sole beneficiary of the same. As the world faces several challenges, it is essential for countries to work together to promote a rules-based international order that respects international law and promotes peace and stability.
BY : Dr. Monica B Sood
Chairperson, NUSC